The Trump administration’s tariffs on imports in 2018-19 have resulted in a slowdown in growth in U.S. exports around the world, according to a new working paper by Michigan Ross Professor Kyle Handley and colleagues.
Handley recently appeared on the “Trade Talks” podcast to discuss the research and its implications. Handley and his coauthors find that U.S. firms hit by new import tariffs represent over 80 percent of all U.S. exports and 65 percent of manufacturing employment. The paper concludes that the new tariffs have put a substantial dent in the exports of firms affected by tariffs on their own imported inputs compared to those that are not affected — a difference of about 2 percentage points.
“U.S. export growth has been fairly weak over the past 12 to 18 months,” Handley says on the podcast. “We thought one of the reasons for that was that the import tariffs on U.S. firms were gumming up the works of their supply chains … and that might have caused export growth to slump as well.”
Kyle Handley is Alexander M. Nick Professor and associate professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.
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